NEA chart, page-613

Putting this all into context is the weekly chart, where there is quite a bit of indecision in the charts.

Bullish thesis:
1. Uptrend line to 58-60 area providing very solid support
2. Slow stochastic cross to bullish
3. DMI says buyers in control (however, they are still weak)
4. Higher lows From March onwards with 4 touch points of uptrend line
5. Still trending above EMAs; longer-term EMAs (100, 200, 300) facing upwards

Bearish thesis:
1. Short and long-term downtrend lines in effect
2. Short-term downtrend line has 4 touch points
3. MACD has converged with share price, confirming current downtrend
4. MACD is still bearish

Neutral:
1. Possible Harami to end the week
2. Convergence of downtrend and uptrend with no break yet.
3. Short-term EMAs neutral (30  & 50)
4. MACD at 0 point

So then, the market is saying that with all information considered, NEA is pretty much at "fair value" in the 60-66 cent range. What can change this?

Firstly, an update from management showing fast(er) US growth would be a huge catalyst (last year they released an ann on 18th October for Q1...). More broadly based, I see growth stocks are back in vogue and trending upwards (see: PPH, BIG, XRO, etc.). NEA could catch a tailwaind here if funds start to pile back in and drive the price north - liquidity is moderate, so wouldn't take too much.

Looking at the bearish side, no news might drive it lower, as would a general market fall or moderate/severe profit taking on the growth stories I mentioned above.

Next week and the week after are very crucial in determining the trend. A very big breakout, either north or south, is coming! If you're a trader you'd be waiting on the sidelines for a clear signal. Momentum and sentiment will definitely drive this one when it eventually blows.