Had notlooked at prices in a couple of days.    Nd did drop...

Had notlooked at prices in a couple of days.    Nd did drop again.  Thisdrop was small 1 RMB / KG so in itself not very important.  After a seriesof 3 rises two drops in a row does indicate we may be switching to a downtrend.   The price drop from March till august was about 15%. ( March USD 47.5 Sept USD 40.4)    We  had a very positive series of three risesfor a total of 5 RMB before this.   This last two drops totaled only 2 RMB.  Not very significant.   However they do dash any hopes of therebeing a rally any time in the near future which looked possible just a fewweeks ago.      IF all the Malaysian problems are solved thenLynas has to show at least a 10% profit on revenue.   If there areexpenses clearing up the residue I am sure market will allow them to call thisa one time item and exclude them    At these prices 10 % will not beeasy at todays reo prices,  in my opinion.    NEXT improvements makes this a hard thing to know for sure. 

It is myopinion that a 10% profit would have trouble supporting a $2.00 SP for anestablish company.   You can do math   PE would be over 20.   

Here are somecharts for ASX 200 for PE,  yield,   dividends  look at these charts and decide what a good PE would be for Lynas   https://www.marketindex.com.au/statistics.       Do not think 2 or 3 years out think about next 12 months.    Long term thinking is valid buying or holding years ahead of those things happening when near term , one or two years, looks bad just does not make sense!!!

Just areminder La dropped  2 RMB  and Ce 0.75 in November     They have had no price rises since March. Volume actually means that CE and La  price drops will have more of a negative impact than Nd and Pr to profits in H1 ‘19.

Ignoring short fall from NdPr