NdPr Day prices?, page-10

Two days ago that was correct.  Take a look at 90 day chart Dysprosium is up and down continuously.  2.5 is 0.22% is this significant?   Lynas only sells  DY as SEG and SEG sells for a lot less than the components that are in it because  it is hard to separate and there are limited facility that can do it.   

Terbium is up today 0.5% it is same as  Dy.  If you listen  to Q1 CC AL talked about the Sothern Mines in China being shut down for environmental reasons.  This is good news it lets Lynas sell SEG.   It may be putting Heavy  REO in shorter supply.   It is a positive Trend right now, it is a little premature to think it might have an impact on Nd, Pr, La, and Ce.  Not saying it will not just too early to tell.    

 

You can listen to CC  on Lynas home page.   https://www.lynascorp.com/Pages/Reporting-centre-Presentations.aspx   

After listening once,  I prefer to read the CC on paper, faster and I can make notes you can find transcript at https://finance.yahoo.com/news/edited-transcript-lyc-ax-earnings-075041502.html

 

Ps this is just a guess formed from listening to AL talk about SEG for years.  I cannot prove it.  I think they are selling SEG  between USD 25 and $40.  /KG I really doubt it is below $25.   IF someone said $50+ I would not argue,  would like to know why so  I could raise my number.   

My price comes from the fact that AL refused to sell SEG when price dropped  below USD 17.00/ KG a few years ago.   Starting with a Q1  CC   Question by“Dylan Kelly, CLSA Limited, ResearchDivision - Research Analyst [10]” and one other   I raised my number to  the $25 to $40 price.   I still do not include SEG in my model.  Not knowing price or volume makes it pretty hard.    I do not think this causes a big error.   Probably raises the prices I calculate for Nd, Pr, La, and Ce.  By + 5%.   Calculated prices are less important.  It is delta change and how that changes profits and cash flow that is important.   Then compare that to the delta change of spot prices.   Spot prices are not  accurate.  Lynas has historically received about 105% of spot price.   There change has been very accurate in predicting the Change Lynas sees with a contract lag.