LYC 1.47% $6.88 lynas rare earths limited

Nd down 3% in two days., page-13

  1. 15,535 Posts.
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    What don't you understand about survival as important?

    Reports indicate Chinese producers are now withdrawing material from sale as downstream destocking has driven prices below their BE, while Lynas remains CF+, with the full impact of LyN optimisation AND economies of scale yet to be realised. Surely the significance of a lower cost base than your major competitors is not beyond you?

    While COGS is but one important metric it is one that is largely within control, get that right as a primary objective and it leverages thru the rest of the operation where you don't have the same degree of control.

    To remain competitive NdPr > NdFeB > PMM must retain/build on its cost/efficiency vs alternatives, which implies a price threshold thru the MSC and most specifically NdPr which largely controls NdFeB. Highly unlikely that threshold is anything like the $80/90kg touted in the various hard rock fantasy studies, in fact UBS's work around $60kg "barrier to entry" pricing looks far more realistic.

    Should that prove out Lynas has a massive advantage starting from the lowest cost base, regardless of further value add upstream. Yet again you try to pigeon hole Lynas as a static business rather than dynamic, part way thru a highly structured development program.
 
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