Hi Sarge and everyone,
Yes I do include RRL in that spreadsheet (we're carrying on a discussion from BDR thread) and I do hold.
A few points on RRL:
- I like the fact that their MD earns one of the lower Pigs-In-The-Trough remuneration packages of the goldies I compared
- I am a little suspect on their resources figure as this was done at AUD $2k oz thus it should be lower
- RRL don't yet provide AISC so I used their cash cost (known) and added in their FY15 sustaining capex guidance of $40m to get an AISC
- RRL have a nice tight G&A figure over and above AISC and have finished their capex cycle so should throw off lots of cash
- Euroz anticipates dividends will be reinstated this FY
- Shorts have been aggressively covering RRL in past few days (latest data to 4/12/14) but it is still 10.7% - lots to still cover
Sarge - compared to BDR there are some interesting comparisons:
- Both are low(er) grade open pits with BDR having a significantly higher grade than RRL. But basically both operations are volume dirt movers
- Both use MACA and the recent flooding event and credit extensions MACA provided RRL show that this is a good two-way relationship
- RRL has 3 mines whilst BDR only has 1, thus RRL provides better risk mitigation (this also applies to # plants)
- RRL and BDR both operate in commodity currency countries so both should benefit from local currency POG as iron ore, coal and energy prices continue to fall - affecting the respective currencies
- Both have a lot of shorts that need covering
- Neither currently pay a dividend but both are anticipated to in 2015 (that'll hurt the shorts)
- Both are low on the cost curve if guidance is achieved
- Both are recovering from operational issues that have affected 2014 performance
- Both have insiders with significant shareholdings
- BDR has better EV/ AIC, EV/ Reserve and EV/ Resource
- I think BDR has better prospects for reserve/ resource upgrades in 2015 as they have material exploration budget and lots of good prospects near Tucano. RRL look like they are hunkering down and focused on free cash flow in 2015.
Cheers
John
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Hi Sarge and everyone, Yes I do include RRL in that spreadsheet...
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