I am a shareholder of both VRL and VRLPA but I believe most of the comments about VRL are somewhat off the mark as much as I wish they are correct. Here are my unbiased thoughts.
Firstly, as much as I would love it to happen the shares will not double in the short term. Institutions are not a fan of the stock due to the reputation in the market and perceived lack of transparency being due to very large shareholdings the Kirby Bro’s and Burke.
The Samual report bases its valuation on the company being fully privatised which is what the majority shareholders have been trying to do for years but would the Kirby's and Burke ever be willing to pay and get finance to privatising the company at a price between $3 &$4, I doubt it. There is also zero chance that the company will be taken over by an outsider in the forseeable future.
A suggestion about capital raising is also completely off the mark. As mentioned it has been widely publisied that management want to privatise the company, not dilute their holdings.
With regards to the announcement re: share buy back, the pro's and con's of participating are meant to be unbiased yet I believe the average person who does not follow the stock could believe that the announcement is encouraging shareholders to sell.
If the buyback is such a good opportunity for shareholders to "sell out of an illiquid stock", why have the Kirby's and Burke decided not to participate?
My opinion is that there is definitely short term upside but it must be remembered that the buy back price can only be 5% above the previous 5 days average.
I'm not sure about the logic of the on market buy back. Maybe someone can shed some light? Obviously this was going to push the share price up which is what management did not want to do. A smarter move would have been to do an off market buy back at a higher price than when the announcement was made with a premium paid if say 90% of shareholders participated.
Unless there are prearranged agreements with institutional shareholders which I doubt would be the case as Village are trying to gain some respectability in the business and investing community, there is more chance of winning tattslotto than them being able to buy back 49mill pref and 12mil ordinary shares on market so I don't really know what game they are playing.
I also believe there is long term value in the stock. Village are an absolute cash cow trading at very low multiples. The global economic recovery will only strengthen discretionary spending with their theme parks and advertising dollars with its Austero investment which are two core business units of Village. How their shares failed to rise a couple of months ago in the few days after the very strong full year results, I will never understand.
Inevitibably the company will be privatised...when this will occur is anyone's guess. If you have patience and are wiling to hold an illiquid stock which will become more illiquid in a couple of weeks, I believe Village share price should outperform the market.
Please correct me if you believe my statements are not factually correct or you have a different, unbiased opinion!
Go Village!!
VRL Price at posting:
$1.82 Sentiment: ST Buy Disclosure: Held
