Good evening Millie34au and other friends in Australia,
In case of Dragon the underwriter should consider a substantial risk/possibility
of getting many shares. The underwriter in unclear but may be related
to Mr Poon and Mr Pak, who would get to the board.
Most likely it should have been indicated if current owners like
Allied Properties would be underwriters?
There appears to be quite large payment for underwriting
and other costs. Based on the Dragon´s annual meeting info the
major part of the possible 17,5 million A$ HK share issue would go to
underwriting and other costs leaving possibly about 10 million.
See table page 8/13
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-notice-of-annual-general-meeting-proxy-form.4149553/
This mean that if there would be 7 million for underwriting (likely it is less), the underwriter
would need to sell the shares he would have gotten before the price would fall under
0.21 A$ (10,5/17,5 * 0.35 A$). In case under writer could get 6 million, he
had initiative to sell before price falls under 0.23 A$ (11,5/17,5* 0.35A$), with
5 milion fee this cut-off for his losses would be 0.25 A$. The Australian and other shareholders
would need to sell before the underwriter to get the cut-off price.
An attempt to sell so large amount of shares could create quite a panic, as others
who have bought share with 0.35A$ may want to cut their losses, too. And there are
the old shareholders who would like to have benefit with regard to ASX price.
This is some great Chinese gambling. To think that one would get 0.35A$ or even close, would mean that you are better and faster seller in Hong Kong than the underwriter and that the price would not crash immediately.
I think based on the underwriting price, we have quite good explanation for the current share price.
Is there an underwriting agreement in place?
It would be great news for shareholder hoping for something like the Hong Kong price, or
underwriter´s cut-off price, if the underwriting agreement would be in place.
Has Dragon informed about such?
As the rough terms were decided in the annual meeting the announcement should be after that?
It would be materially important for shareholders to know the underwriter's fee.
The sponsor Altus is a relatively small company listed in small company
GEM list. The ownership appears to be around Ip-family.
The capacity to be responsible of this size of ipo appears to be questionable.
The company has Current assets 57,8 million HK$ (about 10 million A$)
and Current liabilities 91,1 million HK$.
See page 12,
http://www.altus.com.hk/api/file/?fileName=ew_08149ar-22062018.pdf
There appears to be ipo:s sponsored by Altus,
where the share value has sunk to under 10 % or less of the value at the beginning.
Check GME Group Holdings
https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/8188:HK
Their owners holding company
Altus Holding ltd appears to have started from 4-8$ (though
ipo price appears to have been lower)
and ended in 9 days under 1$ and then to about 0.3$
https://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/chart/8149.HK
http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/GEM/2016/1017/GLN20161017004.pdf
One could consider that the suggested new board member's (Poon's and Pak's) companies would be interested in buying large amounts of shares, and this could be an opportunity for present owners. Especially if the deal can be done before the race would start. It would be interesting to see, what Poon´s and Pak's gamble would be.
It is likely, as suggested by millie34au, that underwriter may not buy Australian shares, at least directly, but they may have interest to avoid a possible panic...
