MOY - Bullish Weekly Chart, page-63

Charlie you are starting to sound like an experienced trader.
I agree with all you said, but possibly have a slightly different view re the possible direction of the S&P500 and DOW.
My current feeling is that the S&P500 will slowly retrace down towards the low of 09/02 which was right on the 200MA. If we get another bounce in or above that area on lower volume compared to that on 09/09 then the strong uptrend will return. But as you pointed out, an unexpected "Black Swan" event would relegate all this analysis to the trash bin.
Below is my SPY momentum swing chart.