The reports are a year apart and in 1 year CMC have had some...

The reports are a year apart and in 1 year CMC have had some nice aquisitions to lower production costs.

As it stands both reports highlighted a figure close to US$800/T as profit.

Magnesium spot price now is around $3100/T and reached over $6000/T a couple of years ago.

The price has bounced off $2800/T and the long term forecast is for price to increase. Therefore $800/T should be a base case scenario.

Phase 1 given green light so 20,000 x $800.
Phase 2 great start with ferrosilicon aquisition, moving to this stage should as has been the theme with this company delivered on time and within budget. 55,000 x $800
Phase 3 has permits in place, preferred project status by government. Id want offtake agreements in place but they have a LOI from car manufacturers being built in the local area both requiring 50,000T annually

Phase 3 by end of 2013 start 2014 is 105,000 x $800 = $84,000,000.00 annually. Thats profit.

Coal is relatively cheap to come by but a deal to secure coal would help reduce costs, another quarry will need to come online for us to get to phase 3 and further ferrosilicon sources would also be required to ramp up to phase 3. This I see as low risk due to great connections with the chinese. 3 out of top 4 holders each hold +9% of the company. Top 4 holders all management hold 45% of the company and some other directors have been buying on market in the 30's.

Funding in place to ramp up to phase 3, so no further dilution and maximim growth for shareholders.

What price do you put on it?

I have a price north of 30 cents thats for sure. Going to keep accumulating.

Market cap under $40 million. Making double that amount within 3 years.

If magnesium price goes up as expected then more in the kitty.

One for the patient as not an exciting company. Just hits deadlines, makes progress and will soon be re-rated.