Equity Issue Requirement: URL will need to raise a further ~A$70m equity in the next 12 months to underwrite the Roseby project funding. No mean feat. Obviously this will lead to significant dilution, however the share upside is still significant, whatever the equity raising share price, because currently there is essentially little value being put on Roseby. Copper Company Collapses: The 2008 collapse of two start-up copper projects (Matrix Metals and CopperCo) in the Mt Isa base metals province has not helped perceptions. However, these projects were unhedged, heap leach, SX-EW, hit by low Cu prices in 2008, and exhibited major operational differences to the proposed lower risk Cu concentrate-producing Roseby project. Copper Price & Currency Hedging: A common view is that hedging is negative for equity markets as it reduces commodity price upside. To get Roseby financed URL will need to hedge, however; (1) the overwhelming current upside for shareholders is in getting the project financed, immaterial of hedging status; and (2) URL’s intended use of put and call collars will ensure revenue benefits flow
URL Price at posting:
21.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held