Your charts were for additions, and an increase or decrease in shorts doesnt necessarily correlate with a decrease or increase in share price, compare PRU and RMS. Maybe I am too tired, or something, to follow your thesis.
Hope you are right about it being a non event
But see http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1492790640.php
Extract:
Scotiabank estimates that the 23 new additions will ultimately constitute 63% of GDXJ. http://www.nasdaq.com/article/gold-miner-etf-gdxj-to-undergo-dramatic-change-cm775363#ixzz4euPdSaWl
From the above article, here is the quote that should send chills through every owner of a small mining stock: “The fund will see dramatic offloading of current index components to fund the new additions. Scotiabank estimates that the fund could have to sell $2.6 billion of fund assets, representing approximately 2.5-8% of each individual existing component.” How is a market as small as the juniors supposed to absorb 2.6 billion in selling without major price disruptions? I think this explains the February sell-off… inside money knew this was coming, and already sold.
Scotiabank also estimated that as much as 50% of the 5.3 billion market cap of GDXJ is due to JNUG, and the complex strata of swaps and futures needed to get that 3x leverage to work. If people leave JNUG because GDXJ has turned itself into a boring, vanilla mid-cap fund, and because they cannot in any way reasonably believe they can replicate that stirring 16 bagger we saw last year, then GDXJ could be in deep trouble. If just 20% of “investors” (gamblers) quit JNUG that is a half-billion dollar outflow from GDXJ, at least. If 50% leave it could reasonably be a 1.1 billion outflow from the junior mining sector… and that is ON TOP of the already massive 2.6 billion dollar outflow from the companies on the GDJX “cut list” mentioned above. You see the potential for carnage yet? This just isn’t a big enough sector. In a period of a month or two it simply cannot absorb such outflows without massive price disruptions.
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