MTR's stated intention is that "any distribution announcement will incorporate a contemporaneous record date" i.e., without prior warning. Holders of warrants or options who have not exercised these before the record date will miss out on the dividend. I wouldn't normally have read to much into that but Terry Grammer's Blackstar group has also just exercised 40m warrants (early), at a cost of £200,000. To my mind that's a strong signal that a distribution is planned in the near future.
I haven't seen any indications that it is their stake in Botswana/T3 that they're planning to sell, but post JORC/metallurgy data it must definitely be an option. If that happens, I suspect MOD's share price would immediately rerate proportional to their JV holding.
MOD Price at posting:
3.4¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held