mining news story, page-2

"The after-tax NPV forecasts indicate the project’s capital costs would be paid back in around two years, Cowden added."



If the 2 year payback of capital costs of $170m is correct, the company could be earning in excess of $90m after tax in 2011/2012 (assuming interest on the debt facility is included).

If it is correct that a debt facility would be easy for the company to negotiate, it is likely that they would use this initially before any equity raising which would probably be done at a much higher price than where it is currently languishing, meaning less dilution.

Maybe 100 million shares at 50c in a year or two and a $100m debt facility later this year or sometime next year (not sure how long the $45m will last).

My guess would be 350m shares on issue in 2011 with earnings after tax of $90m (if Cowden's payback statement is correct).

If Kuhmo gets the go ahead the figures could all change again depending on when the project gets off the ground.