I'll admit, I don't fully know how their processing system works. But if the Feb rain delay has put them 6 months behind (now Q3 full prod instead of Q1) then that will be a disappointment.
Was thinking about what P/E AYN might command once they transition to a dividend paying producer.
P/E of 7 is about 14%pa return 10 is 10%pa 14 is about 7%pa 20 is 5%.
If you were considering buying stock in June 2012 as an income play for 12 months, looking at expected earnings, you would assess the risk level against the earnings. Downside risks are sp falling giving capital loss, revenue not meeting expectation (either processing issues or PoS falling, though that is hedged) meaning reduced income. Upside risk is opposite, you might get lucky and make a capital gain, silver price might soar and you get a bigger dividend.
No way you would accept 7% - better of in a term deposit and guaranteeing your return. 10% maybe at a stretch. I would think 14% more likely.
Will be interesting to see what P/E we get at for the March quarter.
Really keen to see these numbers now.
AYN Price at posting:
4.7¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held