Is the one you’re sure about really 100% certain?
This book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb made me think twice about that.
The one you're sure about will also grab the attention of other investors, and you probably won’t get it at a bargain price. There are smart people out there. The market is not always as idiotic as many value investors want to believe. Graham himself said that superior results is harder than it looks.
I struggle to find high certainty investments at a good price. Please let us know when you find one.