Although I appreciate your research and commentary, I can’t help...

Although I appreciate your research and commentary, I can’t help but get the feeling you have a negative bias crude_trader. You were more optimistic initially when you started discussing the stock, but you seem to have morphed into a slightly bitter tone, more than just constructive criticism. Also, you have never declared owning any of the shares, so am curious as to why you spend time studying this? Small cap energy stock analysis a hobby?


In any case, detailed reviews are appreciated, and also help balance out some of our more overly optimistic posters (which occasionally I may be guilty of, but in my opinion you have to be an optimist if you buy into small cap stocks).


Assume your flow rate comments (1.5 TJ/d) came from CTP’s announcement dated 27 June 2016, however it is mere speculation on your part that this corresponding 0.58PJ/yr will only increase to a “generous” 2PJ/yr. It is worth noting the 2nd paragraph in this announcement which states:


“These results are encouraging as the well was not designed initially to optimise production from the Stairway Sandstone, and so higher rates may have been achieved if the well had been designed specifically for production from the Stairway.”


And thereafter the final paragraph which states:


“Given that the Stairway Sandstone is above the presently producing Pacoota Formation, any development of the Stairway will be able to access the existing field gathering systems. Its quality is such that the Stairway gas, if able to be developed, should be able to lower the processing costs of the whole of the gas production and, as a result, WM15 will remain on production”


I’m no reservoir engineer, however that suggests to me that wells designed for the stairway could well provide flowrates greatly improved (comparable to P3?), and gas processing/production capital will be minimal.


Slide 16 of the Noosa Presentation provided in an announcement on 21 July 2016 provides more info on the Stairway formation, which you may like to review.


Also the announcement of 02 Sep 2016 notes in the final paragraph of the first page:


“With appropriate pricing signals at the field, an additional 125 PJs of gas could be made available from the Stairway formation in time for the scheduled commissioning of the NGP in 2018.”