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22/02/18
11:22
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Originally posted by Whatsamadoovie
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Some of you think that Lepu was in on this.
I think Lepu was the cause of this..
A few months ago someone mentioned the collaboration of big farma sometimes happens.. that these guys get together and try and bring down the little guy.
If you look back at presentations and media appearances by Malcolm, you will see that he is appealing to these large pharmaceutical companies with their war chests and bates them to make an offer.. using phrases like ‘we are a very small research company’ or ‘we are looking for someone to take this to stage 3’ meaning cavatak.
I think bms and Merck were at a point of ‘understanding’ with each other to starve us out.. frustrate shareholders and probably ‘actively’ drop the price...
Dr Maccoll would’ve know this after many conversations with them over trial results. And I can only imagine the low ball discussions that would have taken place..
Given all that (speculation on my behalf), Dr McColl gets an offer from Lepu, and sees a path to stage 3.. takes it.. Merck sees the starvation as ending, and sees a possible path to commercialisation and calls the bluff, knowing what cavatak is..
For me, I would think that Lepu was the catalyst.. congrats to them for tripling their investment, and thanks for making this happen..
As some of you have said, it may not be over yet, the further offer may still happen.. in this poker game the anti was on the table with Lepu, Merck likes their cards.. and opens the betting.. will BMS have aces?
We will see..
Gltah.. enjoy the ride from here. It may be smooth, it may bump a little.. but at the end of the day.. this will now go to stage 3 trials and approval and be pushed by big farma, and save many many more lives than we would’ve had the opportunity to do as VLA..
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One thing is for sure, Big Pharma don't operate as a charity. $1.75 is as low as they think they can get away with. Yes they are taking a calculated risk on further development, trials and approvals, but IMO they would still be happy if they got it at $2.25/share which is probably a fairer price point based on other analysts.