This is my valuation - I've given a p90 and p50 risked valuation...

This is my valuation - I've given a p90 and p50 risked valuation based on the publicised CoS and used the standard matrix of 50c/GJ gas and $2.50/bbl oil.


1. Braveheart (WA 332 P & WA 333)

GAS: 6% CoS
p50 = 1322 bcf
p90 = 501 bcf

Oil: non correlated 6% CoS
p50 397 mm bbls
p90 150 mm bbls

Project Valuation (based of 50c/GJ; $2.50/bbl simple risked a 6% CoS):
p50 = 39.66m gas + 59.5m oil = 99.16m
p90 = 15m gas + 22.5m oil = 37.5m

MOG share 26.4375%: p90 number - 9.9m; p50 = 26.22m
Based on 310m shares, gives p90 = 3.19c; p50 = 8.45c

2. Cornea (WA 342 P)

Oil:
p50 37 mm bbls
p90 13 mm bbls

Project valuation (based resource being contingent following earlier drilling and thus given a (self appointed) 70% CoS):

p50 = 64.75m
p90 = 22.75m

MOG share 22.375% in exchange for 10.8m of drilling costs

MOG risked value: p90 = 5.1m; p50 = 14.49m
On 310m shares, gives p90 = 1.65c; p50 =4.67c

3. Judith (Vic/P47) Gippsland Basin

(SRK estimates that the 60bcf 2P resource at Moby field is sub economic and it has been excluded from the Vic/P47 calculation)

Estimated ultimate recoverable from Judith contigent resource:

p90: 48.3 Bcf
p50: 193.7 Bcf

MOG 35% share: p90 = 8.45m or 2.73cps; p50 = 33.89m or 10.93 cps

4. Artemis

Using MEOs p90 of 8Tcf and p50 of 12Tcf with GCOS of 32%:

p90 = 196.6m = 63.4cps
p50 = 294.9m = 95.1cps


In summary:

p 90 value (cps):
Braveheart 3.19
Cornea 1.65
Judith 2.73
Artemis 63.4

Total risked p90 value: 70.97cps

p50 value (cps):
Braveheart 8.45
Cornea 4.67
Judith 10.93
Artemis 95.1

Total risked p50 value: 119.15cps


These numbers would increase with any success at Braveheart, Cornea or of course Artemis and give an indication of how undervalued MOG is on a risked basis.