I would have thought the fundamentals behind the commodity will...

I would have thought the fundamentals behind the commodity will be the key to success. Get the commodity supply / demand equation right and the price forecasting should be reasonably accurate. I mean what was the price of lithium in 2005? is it relevant? 

Also how important is the price in 2005? The rapid increases in prices to produce commodities means that to revert back to prices for some commodities back to 2015 would see most producers underwater.

But you're points are valid - if the commodity prices are volatile then that's alot of risk given the bauxite should be low-risk profits.