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clock Created with Sketch. 26/10/18
01:25
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Originally posted by Blake Stone
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Have read all the commentary and seems to me a lot of "what ifs". A lot of guessing and suppositioning going on. The thing is we need to determine the posters that are posting to get you to sell and the posters wanting you to buy.Everyone has a reason to post and not always for the benefit of shareholders.Concentrates: All cons can be sold no matter what. Just a question of what the penalties are for low %Zn,Pb or contaminants. Production: Start up is always full of surprises and its just a matter of having super experienced operators and management to handle those "Murphy Law surprises. If they have good experienced people will be just a matter of time before production and con grade gets better. The testwork has proven this and its just a matter of doing it in the big plant instead of the small Plant.Commissioning is a bit like buying a street car and turning it into a race car. There is a lot of testing and adjustments always going on. This will eventually come good and reach its target. Again will only happen if there is the right people.Sluicing with water canons: Not a big fan of this as plenty of constant changes in slurry fraction size and SG of solids and water. The deeper the tailings dam goes then the compaction and "setting" of the tailings (like concrete) then again the SG weight and amount of solids and water will change. Obviously the harder the tailings is set after 10 years in the baking sun the more water to dislodge. I would prefer to see a cutter suction dredge operating like SA. We then get equal water and solids to suit the plant without always relying on the thickeners and cyclones.Shorters in the Stock: This is probably the main reason that the stock has plunged which was always going to happen because of the massive up-jump in price from 20c into $1.50. This was always going to happen and was expected. I would say that the people that were supporting the stock around the $1.10-$1.20 were hoping for good news early on but it didn't come so they have taken a bath courteous of the shorters.I have read in detail all of the reports including the DFS on Century and the prices they have assumed and the recoveries etc and I can say that this project will stand up and eventually be a winner. HOWEVER, having said all that, it entirely depends on the experience of the management and the employees on the site that will make it work or not. With the right people its a winner, absolutely no doubt. The numbers used are very conservative and the pre work and testing exhaustive, but its all now about management and if the management cant make it work,if they cant, have the guts to change the management and get the guys that can make it work. The Project is one thing, the market is another. They are under a lot of pressure from all angles at the moment, but they have no control of the market, so if they make the project work the market will take care of itself. My guess is they may need another $30m, which seems they may have organized. I am not a shareholder of NCZ but have been following it closely and this is my second post on this company. Will eagerly await the quarterly, but if not pretty sure it is just the way commissioning is. Don't lose heart or guts on this one.
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Great post.
