“The very fact you mentioned both Glencore and ERG as having cut...

“The very fact you mentioned both Glencore and ERG as having cut back, means they can both ramp up quickly once cobalt goes a bit higher. This alone will quell any large spikes in price for a few years IMHO.“

Actually no, they cut back because of financial and ore reserve problems.  In fact ERG have shutdown one of their copper/cobalt mines and processing operations. Glencore’s most productive mine Mutanda is planning on 50% production for next few years minimum while they contemplate what to do. Did you miss the news?

”2 years ago, and about a year ago when cobalt was rising, all the pundits were saying how the market was going to be short of cobalt by now, but it didn't happen. I would bet money that at the height of every boom of every commodity, there were plenty of people predicting continued high prices for many seemingly good reasons. Some people cling to non-reality for a great deal of time after, justifying to themselves their own investments.”

Everyone knows that spike was a false peak induced by Chinese demand, imo $50-60k per T is a really great price. Unfortunately China loaded up stocks to secure supply to their own forecasts (non reality lol) and starve others of course. Subsequently having to consume it later and ease right back on buying causing the false rise and false drop in price. The price will likely stabilise this year and I’m predicting around $50k (or $20-25/lb) where battery makers will accept as affordable. At $50 per kg it’s not really a deal breaker for battery manufacturers.