MCR and PAN, page-19

hi Bubby

you and I both !

while I don't know what the nickel price will do ......it is clea tat around 85-100Kt has effectvly been removed from the market (adding up closures / those that have gone broke etc).

the INSG - fy16 demand is approx. 1.94-1.96Mt and they had forecast a deficit of 50Kt (+/-). this doesn't appear to incld the above closures.....

we should get an idea of "strength" of demand out of china, now that Lunar new year is pretty much over........ if its significantly greater than 3Kt / day draw ......and "IF" the canceled warrents continue to increase - any move could be quite rapid (speculation on my part)..........

anyways - this company has "done it before"....although this time is certainl "tougher" in termsof severity !

it has 1 reasonable growth project, and one potentially very good exploration play (Cass), as well as additional ore in BO1/BO2 ...

I rekon they will want to see 5.50 - 6.00/lb prior to restart (imho) for maybe 2-3 months (stability).....cashflow will be constrained during development of the above...

hopefully Lukus and Mulac can let us know the stuation re water in due course.

rgds
V_H