If mado is correct and BAL are stating on social media that they...

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Pecc

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24/02/19

14:17

Post #: 37546731
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Originally posted by prosperity: ↑

Ok, I hope you don't regret asking.

H1 FY19 sales could be down 15% for Australia. GS says China sales are bad so assume about $120m in revenue.
Stock write down unknown for H1, however we know a further write down is required. For prudence assume 10% of inventory is provided at any time. So the provision needs to be $10m. If we wrote-off $10m in stock, management would still need to raise $8m in provision (assumes a lower requirement due to no China label). So to simplify let's assume a $8k to $13k one off write down in H1 depending if management writes off $10m or $15m in old stock.

H1 FY19 sales of $120m
EBITDA of $26m to $30m ($13m to to $22m after writedown)
PAT of $18m to $21m ($9m to $15m after writedown)

H2 FY19 sales of $150m
EBITDA of $33m to $38m ($23m to $33m assuming SAMR delays and slow moving product)
PAT of $23m to $27m ($16m to $23m after writedown)

FY19 sales of $270m
EBITDA of $59m to $68m ($36m to $55m assuming SAMR delays and provisions for slow moving product)
PAT of $41m to $48m ($25m to $38m after writedown)

P/E ratio of 20 with no SAMR and 30 if SAMR is probable.

Valuation of $0.82b to $0.96b ($0.50b to $0.76m after writedown). If we get SAMR add 50% to the valuations above. So you are looking at a range of $0.5b to $1.14b which is a 39% fall to a 39% rise.

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If mado is correct and BAL are stating on social media that they still have 6 months of old stock available for sale via their online store then any write of at this stage I would suspect would at least be questionable, all be it contradictory to the company's previous forecast... Who knows really we will find out Wednesday and the market will respond accordingly..

BAL Price at posting: $8.10 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Not Held
6 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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If mado is correct and BAL are stating on social media that they...

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