BAL management may have not mislead us (claim taken back), but their commentary is vague and up to interpretation. The key thing to note is BAL has excluded China label revenue from FY19 guidance, so $137m revenue with say 3% growth is best figure they allude to ($141m). Key positive to note is "our guidance range is unchanged".
"Our guidance range is unchanged, but in the context of recent category performance we anticipate full year Australian label revenue growth at the low end of the stated 0-10% range. We note that 1H19 sales are likely to be 10-15% below 1H18 due primarily to an expected $10-15M run-down of trade inventory prior to rollout of the brand upgrade. Stronger performance is expected in 2H19 as we return to normal trading and implement key revenue initiatives including the brand upgrade launch."
BAL Price at posting:
$8.10 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Held