The big unknown is why SAMR impacted H2 FY18 China sales. After...

The big unknown is why SAMR impacted H2 FY18 China sales. After all, the delay of application of this new law was extended to Mar19.  Expect a major stock write off of China label in H1 FY19 if they failed to sell it.

The GS CFA expected $125m in sales for H1 FY19, that is roughly a 15% decrease from $150m sales in H2 FY19.  They have factored no China label sales in H1 FY19.  If GS is right, BAL management have mislead us with a 15% sales decline (which should have been max of $27m to $153m).  Variances of this nature make up a good $1 in SP, a material omission in my opinion.