BAL had $90m in inventory ($100m less $10m provision). Like 4...

BAL had $90m in inventory ($100m less $10m provision). Like 4 months worth of sales in inventory (obsolete stock magnet).
We don't know the exact writedown for H1, but we know the provision of $10m was not sufficient for the write off, and we know it is prudent to hold a provision against inventory based on historical obsolescence.  I would expect a further $10m provision and maybe $15m in write offs (net impact of $7m to PAT.

For simplicity, let's assume $165m revenue, 15% PAT ratio, which means $25m PAT less $7m impact to revenue or $18m PAT for H1.

Will this excite the market?
- H1 sales down
- H1 PAT down
- No SAMR
- Revised downwards FY19 sales and PAT forecast.