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$12.88 bellamy's australia limited

Massive increase in demand!, page-309

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prosperity

4,372 Posts.

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23/02/19

11:17

Post #: 37540867
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Originally posted by Dane Swan: ↑

The crap I read on this post is unbelievable seriously.

This leadership team has always under promised and over delivered.
Any CFO worth a pinch of salt would have provided a provision at least 50% provision for stock write-off in last years accounts. Which they did, allowing $6m provision for the transition, see last years financial report note 9, increased by $400k from $5.6m to $6m, This may be negated by production volumes short fall provision increasing under the production volume contract they have, but the two will probably negate each other, maybe upside from the fact new product has hit the shelves with no evidence of clearance strategy to move old label product.

There is no doubt sales will be up, how much, would guess 3-10% at a minimum, with eBit around the $18-$20m, with an increase in provision to protect next H2 result until China approval arrives. based on this no need to notify the market, as within range.

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Go and read the guidance and you will catch my drift.
- $6m provision is not enough for a $15m write off.
- You are definitely right about the management, reshuffle time.
- Sales are going to be down 15%.

Perfect time to short.

Last edited by prosperity: 23/02/19

BAL Price at posting: $8.10 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Held
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