some fun calcs...1. Based on guidance (see presentation re FY18...

some fun calcs...

1. Based on guidance (see presentation re FY18 results) , NPAT might be anywhere between A$17.05m and A$22.75m  which will notionally support a share price somewhere between A$5.91 and A$7.91 (Huge range!!!!)
2. Reporting rules will heavily weigh on BAL management to be within at least this range ...
3. Bell Potter I think had a stab at A$20m (share price 6.95 (PE ratio @ 19.66))
4. If BAL maintain sales consistent with 1H18 (rather than 10-15% reduction indicated), NPAT might be somewhere between A$22.7m & A$26.5m delivering share prices of between A$7.91 and A$9.22
5. Interestingly, much of A2M's reported revenue growth come from Australia and anything but exclusively from China ...  will be interesting to see any parallel in BAL ....

I'm leaning to a NPAT slightly > A$22.75m . Otherwise, IMO, any re-rate (good or bad) will be a result of SAMR announcement.
Have a great day.