Massive buy?, page-12

Each to their own but I don't think its a massive buy

I thought after the last results which propelled the PE to 60 plus and it was up near 22 it was priced for perfection

The pullback following the Cadia issue was a catalyst for the rerate of this share imo.

Whilst the business has a number of mines, its Cadia is the main margin genrator, with lots of copper production, and byproduct credits.

I am no engineer, but assume that whilst mining has recommenced it will take some time and a lot more money to get the operation back to full production.

At yesterdays price its still trading at 56 times.

recently its cash position will also be dented, It has effectively borrowed money and bought into a mine under development which is was already fully financed to build and which is years off providing any earnings

Production and margin in the next report will be lower and Expenses will be higher, lost production, higher unexpected repair bills, lower by product credits with Cadia closed, higher debt

Given this scenario, the PE currently shown will most likely go through the roof when the next EPS are announced. and I think the market is exiting what is an overpriced equity.

The thought was that with gold rising the EPS would increase and one could look past the previous report of very ordinary earnings, but now, yet again there is a problem which is going to take time and more money ---------------

Imagine if it fell to a 40 PE and a lower premium to asset value which ppl are paying,,,,,it should be much lower.

Paying 56 times historical EPS, when you know that forward EPS are going to be lower due to this major business interruption is high risk imo, doesn't matter what gold price is doing, NCM cannot really take advantage of it as a major part of the business isn't converting the ore into cash.  In this situation todays price and premium being paid to asset value it a bit crazy imo.

Remaining short, this is not a growth stock despite what people seem to be paying for it



Good luck