Number 2 for me as well. As for shorting I am not sure I agree...

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slc4me

4,306 Posts.

09/12/17

07:39

Post #: 29502374
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Originally posted by zygfryd ↑

I see three possible scenarios:

Positive scenario: some insto is selling in a hurry. I have experienced this last month with Freedom Foods (FNP), where share price tumbled from $4.90 to $4.02 in several days, then bounced back to over $5 in just a couple of weeks.

Realistic scenario: the market is selling due to concerns about ability of TGR to deliver expected profits, due to risk factors written by many on this forum (except for mass fish kill, which is a hoax, and water temperature: currently 15.6C, well below December's average). The stock price will remain well under $4 until we hear from the company either through 1H results presentation, or sooner.

Negative scenario: There is going to be a long-term oversupply of salmon on the global market and Tassal will struggle to make decent profits, like they did two-three years ago, that is before the supply issue took effect. Yes, demand for salmon is growing but Tassal has not been able to produce fish cheaper than competition. The market has just adjusted the stock price, shorters are kicking in (I'm afraid they are) and they will continue to rock this boat making profits at shareholders' expense.

I'd like to believe that we experience scenario 1, but it is more likely to be number 2.

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Number 2 for me as well. As for shorting I am not sure I agree with you there. Mid Feb this year it was approx 6.3% of capital with the share price at $4.48. Dec 4 it was 3.6% when the share price closed at $3.95. It will be interesting to see the numbers at the end of next week.

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=tgr

TGR Price at posting: $3.62 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Add TGR (ASX) to my watchlist

Number 2 for me as well. As for shorting I am not sure I agree...

Top Stories

MinRes's Ellison knows he screwed up – for that reason, hunt for new Chair to be sped up

Sales growth pushes Lovisa's fortunes (and shares) upwards

To make modern missiles, you need 3D Printing. And in that gold rush, Amaero is selling shovels

Dale Gillham's weekly wrap: Sigma-Chemist Warehouse merger creates pharma powerhouse

Week 47 Wrap: HotCopper users' most watched; Brent lifts on Putin's scary letter; RFK dents CSL

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Panic, paranoia, and gangland politics: HotCopper users react to Dubber's missing $26M

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Pan Asia rebranding to 'clear confusion' after bagging $35M for Chile projects