Market Gap and drop, what have we missed?, page-91

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slc4me

4,306 Posts.

09/12/17

07:39

Post #: 29502374
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Originally posted by zygfryd ↑

I see three possible scenarios:

Positive scenario: some insto is selling in a hurry. I have experienced this last month with Freedom Foods (FNP), where share price tumbled from $4.90 to $4.02 in several days, then bounced back to over $5 in just a couple of weeks.

Realistic scenario: the market is selling due to concerns about ability of TGR to deliver expected profits, due to risk factors written by many on this forum (except for mass fish kill, which is a hoax, and water temperature: currently 15.6C, well below December's average). The stock price will remain well under $4 until we hear from the company either through 1H results presentation, or sooner.

Negative scenario: There is going to be a long-term oversupply of salmon on the global market and Tassal will struggle to make decent profits, like they did two-three years ago, that is before the supply issue took effect. Yes, demand for salmon is growing but Tassal has not been able to produce fish cheaper than competition. The market has just adjusted the stock price, shorters are kicking in (I'm afraid they are) and they will continue to rock this boat making profits at shareholders' expense.

I'd like to believe that we experience scenario 1, but it is more likely to be number 2.

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Number 2 for me as well. As for shorting I am not sure I agree with you there. Mid Feb this year it was approx 6.3% of capital with the share price at $4.48. Dec 4 it was 3.6% when the share price closed at $3.95. It will be interesting to see the numbers at the end of next week.

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=tgr

TGR Price at posting: $3.62 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Market Gap and drop, what have we missed?, page-91

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