I think we should be concentrating on historical MC (as always)...

I think we should be concentrating on historical MC (as always) rather than historical SP in attempting a pre and post SP readout forecast.

TIS had two spikes in SP in which it achieved its highest historical MC of something slightly over $100m. The first at end of Dec 2010 when the SP reached around $0.68 and the second at the end of Aug 2014 with an SP of around $0.42

Now with an SP of $.072 we have a MC of approx $60m, or about 60% of the highest ever.

On that basis I consider that the SP may not travel much higher pre readout and I cannot see the MC hitting more than $120m (i.e. 20% higher than its previous peaks) post successful readout results, unless there is a simultaneous deal attached. I personally consider a $120m MC quite a bit below true value assuming successful results, but I doubt that the market will. Unfortunately that is the opinion that counts (not mine).

[btw, a MC of $120m equates to an SP of approx $0.15.]

TIS went through two phases of excitement, only to disappoint both times and I question whether today's level of FTT excitement is any greater than it was back when ...

However, I believe that there is good reason to think that this time the promise will be fulfilled and that a MC of $120m will be just the beginning.