one thing ive found to be true is that technical chart patterns hold true for stocks despite changes int heir underlying asset base
slr - a gold stock i followed form last year for example - did exactly when its chart indicated ti would - despite it being almost out of mine life, and it being a 150koz producer now vs a 300koz producer back in 2010-11 when those chart relationships were set up
but technicals give you a range and a stock cqan go high side or lowside of that and still be performing in line with its technical underpinnings
but i never go off that alone - i looke at the intrinsic fundamentals of balance sheet and fcf - and what is required to flip them from positive to negative.
my best stock pick this year was rsg - and that was precisely a play based on a stock being priced for dissolution/diltuion that then flipped to being best performing stock because it was a large volume producer that flipped from negative to postive fcf
but have a look at it now - went 24c-2.20 (i sold at 1.90) now back to 98c. yet nearly the entire 98c to 2.20 is within the technical high-low range for the stock. ( its low of range was 1.12)
so the SP range of a target price can be massive. where it ends up depends on a lot of factors.
we wont know what MRMs might be until if and when the stock breaks out out. and then only after a month or 2.
but here's hoping. Certainly its coming from a much much higher valuation and that usually means it has great scope for upside
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