i think that - if you want to have any sensible conversation...

i think that - if you want to have any sensible conversation around target share prices - you need to outline the basis - either fundamental or technical - that supports the share price target you are setting

far too often on HC i see people jawboning about SP targets that are just randomly picked out of the air

personlly i think setting SP targets is a mugs game - always has been.

I look at risk/reward skews primarily and then reassess as the secotr and company specific risk/reward outlook changes.

im reminded of that STO conversation Croasian - where 2 people were saying the stock was goin to 2.20 and would then have to raise and get crushed

yet instead it went to 4.50 - they raise at - and now it will continue higher as sector normalises

historically ive found that people who get burnt by a fallign stock hold it too long - then at the bottom many of those are the most negative on the stock because they see it through their emotional bias

the skilled players who see the fall coming and avoid the knife though are much more willing to buy in for the turnaround

but with commodity exposures - even the derivative ones that arent truly directly linked dollar for dollar to oil price - it primarily comes back to the forward expecation for oil and what that impluies in terms of recovery in both contract demand, price power and asset values.

atm Id say its fair odds oil will be back in usd60-70 zone within 6 months - because commodity prices arent as demand/supply driven as a lot of retail investors think

but we'll see. China looks very wobbly to me atm - and if the bond shenanigans in that market reflect a wider mailaise that comes through soon then oil's surge will reverse

but outside of that - i think oil plays looking very very good risk/reward