Manganese prices surge by another 13%, page-123

I see our mate chad has disappeared, most likely back to posting on his dream AUZ. Hundreds of posters on there everyday, I'd sell with so much HC hype.
His comments did make me think about C1 costs  " I'll take a wild guess and say C1 has risen $4.27"
Looking back over previous quarters the costs do rise when production slows, usually in the March Qtr when its wet and then C1 improves as the year progresses.
What is interesting is S32 Quarterly Report released today showing the average price received for Mn ore for the last six months at US$6.59/dmtu. This compares to US$5.96/dmtu for June to DEc 2017 and US$6.80/dmtu for the Jan to June 2018.
The Metalbulletin shows a FY2018 at US$6.98/dmtu. Therefore S32 gets less than the MB price on average.
Since these are the realised prices for S32, then OMH would possibly be getting the same /dmtu ie. US$6.59/dmtu average for the past 6 months, although I would discount it by another 5% just to be safe,
Assuming the C1 may have increased to $4.20/dmtu or US$3.01/dmtu then the profit is considerably more per tonne than last year and the first half this year.
I'm still confident of the shipping of 500,000 tonnes for the 1/2 year. Using the average price S32 received less 5% and using the higher C1 costs should give  sales of US$112,689,000 or AUD$157.2 million. Thats way more than I estimated as I assumed that the Mn price received would have dropped far more in the second half, according to the S32 report the second half is only down US$0.21/dmtu on the first half.

I had originally estimated https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/37000645/single
"If sales total 500,000 tonnes as a minimum for the half then AUD$8.44/dmtu x 36.15% x 500,000 tonnes = $152,553,000.
As you can see my call of $140 million in Mn ore sales is conservative."

Using the higher C1 cost for Q4 ie AUD$4.20/dmtu and the Q3 cost of AUD$3.15/dmtu would give an average of AUD$3.675/dmtu adding another 20% for other costs giving at total of AUD$4.41/dmtu . Total costs on 500,000 tonnes = AUD$79,380,000
Sales less costs = $77,820,000 PROFIT

Whilst the proof is in the Financial Report in Feb 2019, I will stand by my call.
"The Mn ore profit for the final half should be a minimum of $70 million but it should be closer to $80 million"

I'm sure that chad will do his calculations.
" You sir take the cake with your Q4 predictions. Couldn't possibly be further from the truth."

Still not sure what this means, must be some new modern druggie language.
"Anyway, I'm by no means a seat over, are you a clutch plate by any chance?"