Chad, firstly you need to understand what was written. I never said that OMH would produce 250,000 to 300,000 tonnes in Q4, what I said was that there is 60,000 tonnes left in stock from Q2 and Q3 production. Actually there is 77,006 tonnes of Mn ore in stock as some was left over from 2017. I assumed production in Q4, at 250,000 tonnes which is 10% less than Q3 production.
I took note of the report by OMH management where it stated in the Q3 Report.... " Production for the next quarter is expected to remain strong with the continued supply of ore feed from Shekuma and Chugga Far North. "
This Qtrly Report was written one month into Q4, so they would already have a good indication of production levels.
Sales can be higher than production if there are ample stocks, over the past 6 Qtrs sales have exceeded production in 3 x Qtrs. For Q4 2018 there were higher stocks available for sales v other Qtrs that had little excess stock. So yes my estimation was for a possible 300,000 tonnes of Mn ore sales, but was a possible max scenario. My calculations were done on sales of 250,000 tonnes which I still think is close to the mark, even though you say you have inside information to the contrary.
I’ll wait for the Q4 production report in two weeks time to see the actual figures.
I make assumptions and suggestions for the sake of discussion, as I have no inside knowledge.
Contrary to what you might think, I do have a background in mining. I studied mining and mechanical engineering as a BHP scholarship/cadet, later appointed manager of Atlas Copco in Kalgoorlie during the nickel boom mid 1970's.. Atlas Copco is a Swedish company who makes some of the most sophisticated mining equipment from jumbos to loaders. I didn't get this job being a dummy.
Admittedly I haven't been involved directly in mining for a number of years as I prefer the coast where I can go sailing and built marine company around this. Its far more fun and rewarding than mining.
I now use my mining knowledge for investing.
While its possible that you have inside information thats not available to investors, it seems unlikely when you state “ just making points of which I understand to be true” So obviously you don’t know first hand and therefore its only gossip.
The success of OM Sarawak is not wholly dependent on Bootu Ck mine far from it. The smelter can produce other products as well some of which are higher value than Mn alloys. You must a good crystal ball suggesting that OMH will be $1 next year. One must wonder if you’re so knowledgeable and know the future then why didn’t you buy a few million at 10c. It was/will be far more rewarding than AUZ.
OMH Price at posting:
$1.30 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
