LEI 1.67% $20.71 leighton holdings limited

I'm just doing some thinking out loud, regarding what the math...

  1. 645 Posts.
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    I'm just doing some thinking out loud, regarding what the math might suggest to be the best option if you think $22.50 is a realistic price for LEI to return to shortly after the offer is completed.

    Let's say LEI is trading at $20 now, LEIE at $16. You have 800 shares and want to have the same amount when the offer is complete. This does not take into account the tax implications and transaction costs, which will be different for everybody.

    1. Option one. Do nothing. You end up with 800 LEI after offer closes.

    2. Accept the offer and rebuy those sold as LEIE.

    You get $6,750 for the 300 sold but must pay $4,800 to buy 300 LEIE

    So you end up with $1,950 in cash and 800 LEI after offer closes.

    3. Sell all your LEI on market and buy back as LEIE.

    You get $16,000 for the 800 sold but must pay $12,800 to buy 800 LEIE

    So you end up with $3,200 in cash and 800 LEI after offer closes.

    3 is clearly the better option but that is based on the above assumed prices. I don't believe there have been any trades in LEIE yet, so the CommSec price is unrealistic. It might be worth setting up a spreadsheet to see if any arbitrage can be obtained for trading LEI/LEIE over the next few weeks, but I'm sure the big boys will set the pricing so there is no advantage between 2 and 3.

    Remember also I am assuming $22.50 is realistic for LEI post offer, so staying in rather than selling out is your preference.
 
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