Pretty much spot on, although you can't disregard luck combined with a fresh set of eyes! Another way of looking at supergene is as 'smoke' which has got to have come from somewhere. Large amounts ie grade, then you're close, a little .... well then you've your work cut out. IMO the trick now has to be deciding which direction to focus on or whether its time to go elsewhere.
Pretty much spot on, although you can't disregard luck combined...
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