crazy there are many scenarios that can arise.... however the...

crazy there are many scenarios that can arise.... however the most crucial event is a downgrade to guidance in the next 2 weeks...

the laws on disclosure are technical and complex and integrate fixed and interpretation rulings

your scenario of 9% miss to guidance...

rule in terms of extent of surprise (your basis) to guidance is as follows:

• <5% no disclosure required
• >10% disclosure required
• 5-10% varies case to case

rule in terms of misleading the market

• misleading market of their likely earnings... this is open to interpretation however AGI stated a minimum PBT of 56m for FY17 guidance... hence anything below will constitute misleading the market ... even 1% below.

so they would have to update or head to the courts

in fact in 2015 this scenario played out ....

• Guidance of growth on pcp revenue of 244m in 1H15 presentation
• trading update early June 15 stating revenue will miss 244m by 2% ... not 10, 9 , 8, 7 .... % just 2%

as how it all unfolds depends on event and share price at the time...