There is a tension between growing the pie for everyone in the cooper basin versus splitting/securing acreage in your favour at early opportunity to (what may appear to) best serve self interest in the short term.
The growing the pie ambition will be served by getting magnum hunter type expertise into the basin. Hence AQO keeping the opportunity open to them a little longer.
If the NSE deal does not get up (but which I think has a good chance of getting up because I understand at least some major holders support it), then I think magnum hunter may still have another deal up its sleeve to get a piece of 570. The SXY success rate/story supports the drawing of this conclusion.
Failing that, one of your predators could bid mid 20's for AQO, and secure a takeover, and create increased value for their shareholders.
I think AQOs major shareholders will wait a bit longer for magnum hunter to be successful in farming in (indirectly or directly) before being prepared to sell to someone else. That is why, in my view, a hostile bid at 25c ATM would not be successful. Too much of the company is currently in the hands of a small number of holders who know each other well and are cooperating to control the company as the magnum hunter story plays out, or disappears.
The attraction of magnum hunter is that if you get major US expertise into AQO the rump of 570/AQO becomes more valuable to gas/industrial companies in aust. There is a sh-tload of gas there. Smorgons are thinking this type of thing I suspect. That is why they are more safely backing AQO rather than NSE.
I am playing with other investments as the AQO saga continues. I have spent too much time on AQO already.
AQO Price at posting:
14.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
