LPE analysis

LPE has quiet a unique and economically defensive model forming here one in which is based on strong parabolic growth in GW and % terms. Also of importance is the fact earnings are reoccurring for long time frames which is something the large to medium fundies will take lots of notice of.
We are right at the start of the race with our engine roaring and over the next few weeks, months and years this will be a fantastic play. Sort of akin to the internet providers disruption which many companies have done well out now it’s the electricity markets turn.
This is one of my biggest holdings ever now.
To demonstrate what we are in for let’s start with the following info:
We get $220,000 per GW at 18% margin. Now the margin will grow as more scale comes into the business. But for the purpose of explaining my idea of our growth I will use 18%.
LPE recently announced that the contracted GW went from 24GW to 48GW meaning an increase of 86% in only two months, now the key to remember here is this was done with the small amount of people and capital they had right before the settlement of the $6 million and  our requote onto the ASX. Not to mention this time period was very slow being Christmas.
My understanding is the money used from the float is now fully in action to increase sales staff by a significant amount and expand the business at a much accelerated pace. Now all this in mind if we can achieve 24 GW’s of growth in only two months with the company resources being only a fraction of what it is now post float well it makes quite excited and I can almost bet the growth rate will be around 40-60GW’s per two months here onwards. This may even prove conservative for at least the first year or two which will see lots of customer conversions then later years will slow in growth as the company matures
Let’s calculate this out keeping in mind we have a fully diluted company value right now of 65 million.
My current estimates for this year are as follows:
31^st Dec to 29th Feb=90GW contracted
28^th Feb to 30^th April= 130GW contracted
30^th April to 30^th June= 170GW contracted
30^th June to August 31^st= 210GW contracted
August 31^st to October 31^st=250GW contracted
October 31^st to December 31^st = 290GW contracted
290GW x 220,000 =$63,800,000 x 0.18 = $11,484,000 pre-tax profits annualised and course this will keep going and going.
I personally think these are conservative figures as their point of difference in the body corp market are too attractive for people not to convert underpinning fast growth and just remember 450GW is only 2.25% of our specialty area. I fully expect us to hold 35% of the market a relatively short time frame hence why I say the figures will probably prove conservative.
The only thing I dislike is the capital structure it will just take some time to churn those bloody options that expire next month and are in the money. I would hope that some holders have the brains to convert and hold as this is a very good stock for the current macro backdrop.