Report from Metal Miner for November.
"Nickel prices are hovering near the lows of 2009. That level is giving support to prices
as traders remain hesitant on whether nickel prices can go below recession levels. While
other base metals are still trading comfortably above recession lows, nickel could be the
first industrial metal hitting that psychological level.
Another factor supporting prices this month is the speculation that Glencore Plc, the
world’s fifth-largest producer of nickel, could cut nickel production following cuts to
its copper and zinc output to reduce its heavy debt levels. Moreover, other industry
shutdowns could follow given that 60% of the world’s nickel is estimated to be nonprofitable
at current price levels.
Can Prices Go Up?
Some analysts argue that Philippine ore won’t be sufficient to cover nickel pig-iron
(NPI) producers’ capacity in China, tightening the nickel market. However, Indonesia is
already working on producing more NPI, as the country is pushing to win more profit
from its mineral sources. Chinese producer Tsingshan Group is set to triple its capacity
to produce NPI in Indonesia as soon as May, having an installed capacity of 900,000
metric tons of NPI.
Even though nickel’s supply-demand dynamics may actually be tightening, the market is
facing other problems:
High Stock Prices
A period of super-fast production growth has left record high inventories. Although LME
stocks declined in October, they are still above 400,000 mt, almost 5 times higher than
in 2011. Such a huge overhang of metal is pressuring prices, removing any hopes of
market deficit."