Despite potash being discovered at both level 13 & 18, the mkt has trashed the SP. Has such a massive fall been justified? Here's one perspective:
FACTS
1) The potash is many many hundreds of feet below the surface. We cannot see where potash is located except by the 10cm wide core each drillhole produces.
2) We know Potash occurs over a wide area due to results from drilling many years ago by oil&gas explorers.
3) We are currently limited to drilling in only 10% of the desired area.
DEDUCTIONS
1) Yesterday's drillhole results showed that:
A) Potash was discovered.
B) Seams were thinner and grade 'appears' lower than had been hoped-for.
BUT mineral deposits, be they gold, Cu or Potash never occur in uniform widths or grades. We are using a sample weighing a few kgs to make deductions about a deposit estimated at 3-5BILLION tons ie. 3-5TRILLION kgs!! Look through any company with a large exploration programme. Numerous holes are drilled and no two are the same. Often many holes come-back as barron. My point: one simply cannot extrapolate accurately from one single hole. For all we know it could have missed a seam of Potash twice as wide just metres away.
2) Previous drilling proved Potash ocurrs over a large area measured in sq.Kms not hectares. It has ALREADY been discovered. We are drilling to find where the best seams ocurr. This is not virgin ground.
3) I am pretty confident permission to drill in Fed territory will be granted. It has passed the 1st important step. Give it time to complete.
My decision is to HOLD. I am not willing to sell everything based on a single hole when we know there is a huge deposit underground. It hasn't dissolved-away over past 20 yrs. The irony is that had the 1st drill hit a wider richer seam the SP would have possibly skyrocketed to $2. We are investing our life-savings to earn a living. Everything has an element of risk. I need much more evidence from a number of drillholes B4 deciding if TRH is a viable mine. It's simply too early to make that decision. Will i worry over next 2-3months regarding next 3 holes? Of course i will. But potential is high and worth holding-on for imo. dyor.
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