It's possible to read your comment "double the Kennedy rate" in different ways - good and extraordinary.
Kennedy was initially producing about 10mmcfgepd. So, I'm assuming that you are hoping for Weston to match Kennedy rather than to produce double its flow?
I'm not knocking Weston - 3,000ft in the chalks and a bit of an animal.
The one to watch and wait for, however, must be Easley.
Remember AUT's presentation in August 2008 - potential outcome after 1 - 2 years...20 wells. OK, so that included Longhorn and Ipanema, but with Hilcorp's financial muscle and apparent experience and enthusiasm, could we be looking also at potentially 20 wells by the end of 2011?
If the new wells produce 2 x Kennedy rate (pay interval will be twice as great), that could be 4,000bpd attributable + 18mmcfgpd attributable with the field less than 10% developed. What's that? 35 cents/share earnings (after tax) for ADI?? Is that where Hartleys got their 180 cents/share from?
Bit early now - bit like trying to predict the path of a hurricane looking at a weathercock - but it's good to see the potential without having to assume anything extraordinary about drilling rates, production flow rates or prices.
ADI Price at posting:
22.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held