MML 2.41% 85.0¢ medusa mining limited

Upcoming announcements: 1) 5July. Change in substantial...

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    Upcoming announcements:
    1) 5July. Change in substantial shareholding. Arbiter has bought another 2.1mil shares to increase its holding to 23.5mil shares(11.3%). So together Arbiter/Ruffer have 24.2%. Turnover today would indicate that the shorts totalling 1.9mil shares( www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=MML ) could be in trouble as they'll have to compete against Arbiter each morning for the loose overseas shares as they'll be no sellers each day after that initial flurry.
    2) 24July. Martial Law lifted indicating a lowering of the security threat on Mindanao.
    3) 31July. Quarterly activities report. Main items: a) Production for Q4 to be around 24k ozs - this will confirm that the operation is back on track and that cash flow will be enough to avoid any capital raising that has been a threat to shareholders over the last six months. b) Confirmation that good progress has been made on development of the E15 Service shaft - hopefully it has now been completed to at least Level 8 at 378metres depth from surface and that the blind sink to Level 10 has commenced. They haven't updated guidance(Jul17 previously) for over seven months as to which month it will be operational so it would be great if they would now state which month, in the next six, that it will be finished - what a marathon! My money is on October.
    www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/thuthukani-engineering-designs-hoisting-infrastructure-to-medusa-mining-2017-06-26
    c) Hopefully they will provide production/cost guidance for FY18(as happened this time last year) - I'm hoping for ~140k ozs at AISC $US~775. Looking for a realistic estimate and not a 'soft' estimate - Management will get no points from me for deliberately under-estimating and then over-delivering as Management bonuses should be based on achieving a stated realistic target. d) Good drilling results from the mine down to Level 16.
    4) 18August. Reserves and Resources Statement for FY17. This report was released on 28Sept last year but I expect it will be brought forward this year as it resulted in an auditor's qualification due to its lateness in relation to the preparation of the Annual Financial Statements. Last year Resources of 961k and Ore Reserves of 376k for the operating mine - hopefully with all the drilling in the last 12 months from Level 8 that these figures will be substantially increased but impossible to guess by how much..
    5) 25August. Impairment testing for FY17. Due to the low market capitalisation of $US45mil at 30June, I would expect that they will add another ~$100mil to impairments which when added to the $55mil provided at 31Dec16 will bring the total for the year to around $150mil. ASIC is tough on listed companies that state intangible assets in Non-Current Assets with a value greater than the Company's market capitalisation so the Evaluation, exploration & development A/c will have to be cut back. I would expect a statement similar to this previous release:
    www.medusamining.com.au/wp-content/uploads/150903_assetimpairment.pdf
    6) 31August. Annual Financial Statements for FY17. Interesting figures will be Cash at Bank, Gold ore for settlement, Accounts Payable and Loans Payable.
 
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