Look at the Monthly Chart of GCY before you sell !, page-30

With actual data for the first two-thirds (approx.) of the Dec2018 quarter available, this is my take on the likelihood of reaching the revised target of 17,000-18,000 (ASX: 28Nov2018):

• Oct18  4898 oz (actual)
• Nov18  5873 oz (actual 4894 oz to 26Nov2018 then pro-rata to end of month ie 4894 x 30/25
• Dec18  7500 oz (forecast ASX: 28Nov2018)
• Dec18 QTR = 18271 oz

My starting estimate for Dec18 would be 5873 oz (ie same as Nov18) increased to 6069 oz for the extra day in the month ie 5873 x 31/30).

This would give 16840 oz for the Dec18 QTR (4898+5873+6069) - close to the bottom of the revised forecast range of 17000-18000 oz.

That is, all they have to do in Dec18 is to repeat the Nov18 performance and they will reach 16840 oz, just under the revised forecast range.

My assessment is that further ramp-up in Dec18 is likely which could take the Dec18 QTR to 18000 oz, the top of the revised forecast range. This would mean that Dec18 would be 19% higher than Nov18 ie (7500-271)/6069.  Do-able?  I think so.

Earlier posts have suggested a quarterly break-even of around 18500 oz.