I have some questions and comments which I'd be grateful if you would address:
1) I don't see where the WIPO stats support your view on China which is where the growth lies, even if Singapore is regarded as the current 'hub'. Please explain with reference to the 2017 WIPO report: http://www.wipo.int/edocs/pubdocs/en/wipo_pub_901_2017.pdf and http://www.wipo.int/pressroom/en/articles/2016/article_0017.html
2) Can you please show us where the 0.5% comes from? The documents you have suggested give me different figures (much larger). But even so, I think Asian firms are not just generating outward filings. They are taking care of domestic IP as well.
3) Not sure what your point is about Chinese IP being driven by govt policy. If anything, govt policy stimulating innovation can only help IP filing growth. I read the article. How is this a risk to IPH growth?
4) The PCT means that businesses need to be better at what they do to justify their involvement in the IP process. The lesser players will fall by the wayside. It is possibly part of the reason why IPH floated, because the market will need to rationalise and use its efficiencies to add value. Survival of the fittest! The need to expand internationally and tap into the Asian growth was obviously also part of the strategy. Yes, some firms will fall by the wayside, but there's strength in numbers and efficiencies (which, admittedly, are yet to be fully realised but once realised should add to the growth).
4) The code of conduct review
https://www.ttipattorney.gov.au/sit...of-the-code-of-conduct-consultation-paper.pdf I think the review is somewhat of a paper tiger. I've read Lawyers Weekly about IP firms complaining about the potential for conflict of interest. Having worked at a few international law firms I know that when there is a conflict that can't be managed (and most are with the client's consent and 'Chinese/Ethical Walls'), the firms usually keep the clients that refer them the most $$ valuable work.
I noticed XIP is enjoying some bounce at the moment. Thoughts on that?
I'm happy to wait until results are delivered before speculating any further. Bell Potter expects the Asian results to deliver a potential upside surprise. If there is, we'll have our answer.
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