Ignore the drills.Ignore the cash flow.Ignore whats happening in...

Ignore the drills.

Ignore the cash flow.

Ignore whats happening in adjacent permits.

Ignore hedging strategies and their impact.

Ignore changes in the A$.

Ignore changes in their reserves.

Frankly, B-2, you might as well just throw darts.

Now, an argument that Stuart is overvalued because the failure of Hyperno has called into question the prospectivity of the eastern half of 113, that I'll listen to.

But Stuart's history has been ...

have a core of committed, long term investors (the 'Adelaide matrons')

have some drilling success .... speculators bail in (ie Acracia, Worrior)

speculators get bored, price drifts down to 200% of the last trough (Acracia 75c -> 25c, Worrior 80c -> 50c) as some speculators convert into long-term holders (or long term holders buy more).

It then drifts up to just short of the old high (Acracia 25c->45c, Worrior 50c -> 75c).

Right now, we have confused speculators, because they just did 3 wells for 2 hits ... but the hits were on an 18% share and a 35% share, so thats more like 1.5 hits.

So therefore, I'd guess the price will drift around 75c, until Worrior-2 and Arwon. Or until people realise that RSW and Derrilyn represent ummm probably about 0.4 mmbo for Stuart, taking their 2P reserves to 4.4 mmbo.

And STU have 100% of Arwon and I personally will be emailing most of you SOBs if Tino's board changes their mind about no farmins to Arwon, and I'll pay the 3:1 they'll demand (and B2 ... you look at charts. I look at seismic and oil migration. And the oil that got into Worrior didnt come from the north or the west, and the oil fields are east of Worrior. Guess where Arwon is ?).