Thanks Sgoni...hopefully we can get some more comments from investors.
As an outsider, the whole episode is incredible, and there may be more twists before its done.
Re option 2 and "What do you mean by a disorderly liquidiation (too aggressive leading to value distruction?)" Comments as follows:
- Direct investments are likely to be difficult to sell at a reasonable price
- ideally I would prefer they sit on them for a few years to maximise value
- The direct investments will become a more significant part of the portfolio as gearing is unwound
- It is worth reading carefully the way gearing is expressed: gross debt/gross assets. Thus, in my language, at 50%+ GD/GA, they are 100%+ geared (ie debt greater than equity). Thus, when debt paid off via the current US$400m of underlying hedge fund redemptions (assuming direct assets are not liquidated), then the percentage of EBI in direct investments will more than double.
So, where am I going with this.
Option 2 - direct investments which are significant (and growing in relative influence on NAV) may be sold at fire sale prices if Laxey is in a hurry to wind up. Ideal scenario is patience and realising over time, but uncertain whether they will be keen to get what they can quickly and move on...particularly as most hedge funds are apparently subject to a lot of redemptions. Thus, I have invested because I have the patience and don't need immediate liquidity, thus able to exploit the difference between share price and NTA. However, Laxey and co may face other demands and therefore may act contrary to long term shareholder value.
Option 1: As a relatively small shareholder, whilst I am not counting on it, I think there is a good chance of being able to exit in full over 2-3 years. In this scenario, the question in relation to the direct investments will be valuation, and I don't think they will apply firesale prices and IMO it wont be necessary in 2-3 years to do so.
It would be interesting to know how direct investments are currently being valued.
Stil undecided, however leaning to option 1 where I have tax losses to offset the profits I will realise on transfer to the new trust, and option 2 where I dont have tax losses.
EBI
everest babcock & brown alternative inv trust