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12/03/19
11:30
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Originally posted by randosmit
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Yes, cost is the limiting factor here. Not just the cost of the 12v battery, but also all the other automotive accessories that run on that power today (windscreen wipers, stereo, etc).
Do you believe it will stay that way forever? That in 10 years time all electric vehicles will still have a 12V lead-acid battery? Maybe .. What about 20 years?
Actually, I feel it is more down to the way the automotive industry is dealing with the risks associated with a high voltage system. As these become the norm, and DC-DC converters (used in EVs to charge the 12v lead-acid battery from the high-voltage battery) prove their reliability in that industry, the 12v battery itself will disappear and be replaced by the high-voltage battery with a DC-DC converter where required. The equipment is already available int hat car. The 12v battery is just a "lets make sure it is reliable" and "lets disconnect the high-voltage system when stopped".
The auto industry is a cautious industry hesitant to changes. So it will take some time ... But I think it will happen.
Here's a lead-acid battery electric vehicle, with batteries much much larger than stop-start systems. But even that industry is considering shifting to Lithium soon as prices fall:
In the short term though, G1A is going into a growing market with a good product. For the next 10 years at least I'm sure they will do well, and that is why I'm holding.
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I don't really think we need to worry about what will happen more than 10 years out. The next 10 years look tight for lead, especially for high grade ore that can be mined and smelted in the most environmentally safe way. Toho would not be investing $90 million if they were expecting the bottom to fall out of the lead market.